Three basic truths about planning

A plan is a not-unrealistic scenario for the future

A plan is a valid option to get from here to there, from where we are now to where we want to be. The plan might be difficult and challenging. We night not know all the steps. It might have a small chance of success. But it is not unrealistic.

The purpose of a plan is to change the plan

Plans are made at the start of things. Once we get going, we learn things about ourselves, about the world, about the plan. The point of a plan is not to stick to it. The point of the plan is to get started, learn, and change the plan.

The value of an estimate is in the response to the estimate

It’s hard to give an estimate that’s accurate and precise. That’s fine, because the value is not in the estimate. The value is in the response to the estimate. To elicit a response, a rough estimate based on intuition often is all you need.